Is 'respect' Mexico's ticket out of tariff troubles?
Mexico's president cites 'respect' as a cornerstone in her relationship with Trump as Canadians put their 'elbows up'
A version of this story ran in The Mexico Brief
US President Donald Trump imposed 25-per-cent tariffs on steel and aluminum imports this week regardless of country. Canada responded with retaliatory tariffs. Doug Ford, the Ontario premier-turned-nationalist folk hero, also imposed a surcharge on electricity sent to three neighbouring US states.
Trump predictably struck back, promising 50-per-cent tariffs on Canadian steel only to reverse course after Ford suspended the electricity surcharge.
Mexico never retaliated against the steel and aluminum tariffs. President Sheinbaum said Tuesday that Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard would address the issue later in the week. She later cut short a question on whether Mexico, like Canada, would get slapped with similar 50-per-cent tariffs, saying tersely: “No, we’re respectful.”
A little respect
Respect is a word often spoken by Sheinbaum as she deals with Trump’s tariff threats and talk of U.S. military intervention in Mexico.
It follows the example of her predecessor and mentor, former president Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who often insisted that Trump treated Mexico with “respect” – even as Trump spoke poorly of Mexico and Mexicans, and forced deals on AMLO such as deploying the National Guard to the northern and southern borders in 2019 to stop migration and avoid escalating tariffs.
AMLO travelled to the White House in July 2020 for what was billed as celebration for the new USMCA – skipped by then-prime minister Justin Trudeau – where he told Trump in the Rose Garden:
“You have not pretended to treat us as a colony. On the contrary, you have honoured our status as an independent nation. That is why I am here to express to the people of the United States that your president has behaved toward us with kindness and respect.”
The comments landed AMLO a cameo in Trump’s election ads. It also caused supporters to claim that AMLO had “tamed” Trump, who responded courteously.
But the respect narrative legitimized AMLO’s dealings with Trump. It also served as a shield as he caved on US demands – such as beefing up immigration enforcement – that would have drawn accusations in past decades of servility from the anti-imperial left, an important part of his diehard base whose views are reflected in the government-subsidized (through generous advertising) La Jornada newspaper.
“Mexico se respeta,” (Mexico is respected) both AMLO and Sheinbaum say often – one of their nationalistic bromides repeated in the mañanera (morning press conference) – even as they quietly agreed with Trump’s demands.
Old "‘duplicitous’ pattern
Respect from the US is often a sore spot with Mexico – understandably after multiple foreign interventions and the US taking half its territory in the 1840s (indignities Sheinbaum raised at her Zócalo rally.)
The respect discourse seemingly has its limits, however. AMLO’s claims of respected didn’t fully extend to former president Joe Biden, though he took a kinder tone toward his then US counterpart as Republican governors pushed tougher border measures – especially Texas putting buoys in the Rio Grande between Piedras Negras and Eagle Pass – and Florida approving tough anti-immigration laws.
Mexican presidents having frictions with their US counterparts – and viceversa – isn’t anything new. Neither is the AMLO/Sheinbaum discourse of receiving “respect” – bolstered by nationalistic flourishes – though they seem to emphasis the word more.
“The Mexican government position has been almost always duplicitous,” said a longtime observer of the bilateral relationship. “For Mexican consumption, they play up their anti-gringo credentials as much as possible. … But when dealing behind close doors with US leaders in DC, they accept whatever the White House wants.”
‘Respectful’ call
Sheinbaum won a reprieve from tariffs – now delayed for USMCA-compliant exports until April 2 – after a “respectful” call with Trump earlier this month. She planned to announce Mexico’s response at a mass rally in the Zócalo on March 9, but recast the event a “celebration,” where she proceed to speak of “respect” – saying the word nine times in her address to thousands of partisans filling the iconic square. She added in a routine shot at the opposition:
“In the relationship with the United States, with its government, dialogue and respect prevailed,” she said in one example. “Fortunately, dialogue and, above all, respect between nations has prevailed,” she said in another. She said in a shot at the opposition:
“There are probably some people who aren't interested in a good relationship between our people and governments, but I’m sure that with information and respectful dialogue, we can always achieve a respectful relationship. That’s been the case so far.”
Her approach seems to be working with Trump – with the US president and his officials speaking highly of her.
The New York Times cited for four sources describing a positive phone call ahead of tariffs being lifted in March, which included Sheinbaum presenting updates on everything Mexico was doing to stop migrants and fentanyl.
But personal is often political with Trump as it was with AMLO. Sheinbaum, The Times wrote, “is forging somewhat improbably, a relationship of budding public respect with her American counterpart.” The Times aptly compared the situation to Canada, too, citing sources describing a moment in the call:
“Mr. Trump stayed silent for a long beat after she stopped talking – and then, after complimenting Ms. Sheinbaum, abruptly launched into an attack on Canada, the people said. He asked what Ms. Sheinbaum thought of Mr. Trudeau. She said she didn’t talk much with the Canadian leader. Mr. Trump said she was lucky.”
‘Elbows up’ in Canada
Mexico’s posture of “respect” contrasts with Canada’s combativeness. “Elbows up,” a hockey aphorism for Canadian toughness and assuming a self-protective posture, has emerged as a Canadian battle cry amid Trump’s talk of annexation.
The Reforma newspaper ran a front-page headline comparing Mexico and Canada after the surcharge spat, seemingly lending support to the president’s posture of respect: “Canada challenges... And Trump makes it fold.” Doug Ford is still remembered in Mexico for throwing the country under the bus after Trump’s election by calling for it to be kicked out of the USMCA trade deal. He called it “insulting” to even compare Canada and Mexico and claimed Chinese goods were transiting through Mexico into the US market.
Ford has attracted much of the international attention turned toward Canada. It’s not unexpected for an outspoken populist politician, larger-than-life presence and premier of the country’s largest province. He’s also emerging in a political vacuum as the country changes prime ministers – with a sober technocrat in former central bank governor Mark Carney replacing Justin Trudeau, who Trump belittled as “governor.”
Colourful comments on Fox News – the opposite of Sheinbaum’s “cool head” refrain – have sent Ford trending on social media.
“I was supporting Trump right up to this election. And then, all of a sudden, he turned the guns on his closest friend and ally. It was so disappointing. He let us down,” Ford said in a widely shared clip.
Ford ultimately backed down from the surcharge on the promise of a Thursday meeting with US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. Ford emerged afterward saying the temperature had dropped on trade.
‘They’re not respectful’
But Lutnick jawboned Canada and Europe in the prelude to the Thursday meeting with a series of interviews in which he raised Sheinbaum’s favourite word: respect.
“Europe and Canada do not respect Donald Trump and do not respect America’s ability to build its steel and aluminum industry, which is vital for national security, whereas you watch Mexico and you watch the UK be pragmatic and thoughtful, and the way we're going to deal with them is going to be better.” He wondered aloud:
“Why are we doing all this business in Canada if they’re not respectful, if they’re not thankful?”
He told Bloomberg: “The British didn’t respond, the Mexicans didn’t respond you – have some countries that actually thoughtfully examine how they do business with us,”
Sheinbaum receives enormous credit for handling Trump and fanfare in the international press. Her “respect” strategy seems to be working, though attention seems to focus more on an ability to charm Trump or becoming a Trump whisperer” than the actions taken by her government.
Another more prosaic explanation for her success with Trump might be that Sheinbaum is responding to US demands – not with retaliatory tariffs, as Lutnick criticized Canada for – but with actions on security and migration, including 29 cartel bosses being sent to the United States. She’s effectively reversed AMLO’s stated security policy of “hugs, not bullets” and publicly expressed no issues with the revelations of drones and spy planes crossing Mexican territory.
Those actions are being noticed with Secretary of State Marco Rubio telling Fox News.
“We have seen a response from the Mexican government that has never happened in the past, that has never happened before.”
‘All cards are on the table’
Ronald Johnson, the ex-green beret nominated as US ambassador to Mexico, also had some complimentary words for Sheinbaum at his nomination hearing. But he said in response to a question on US intervention, “I think all cards are on the table.”
Sheinbaum responded to Johnson at her Friday morning press conference with a familiar refrain: “respect.”
“We disagree. Everything is not on the table, not even the chair,” she said. “We will coordinate with a framework of respect.”
Respect and cooperation: Mexico’s ticket out of tariffs?
Respect dominates Sheinbaum’s discourse. Action on Trump’s demands is drawing his administration’s attention. Markets are betting the latter will spare Mexico from tariffs. Barclays said in a March 12 note:
“It is still our view that tariffs will not be implemented on Mexican imports, given how cooperative the Mexican government has been on security and immigration.”
The peso dropped below 20 to the dollar on Friday.
Trump said his respect for Sheinbaum prompted him to pause tariffs earlier this month. Sheinbaum is betting on that happening again. But she’s complying with his demands, too.
Sadly, it looks like fear and I think their president is weak, I so hope I am wrong.